**Pre requisite:**

- Fund. Maths / numeracy skills bootcamp

**Pre-reading**:

- Davenport, Thomas H., “Competing on Analytics“, Harvard Business Review, Jan 1st 2006
- “The Use and Misuse of Statistics“, Harvard Management Update, No. U0603C

**Reports:** “Analytics bundle”, Anthony J. Evans [WIP]

**Briefs: **House of Commons library

**Textbook**: Curwin, J, and Slater, R., 2007,* Quantitative Methods for Business Decisions*, Cengage Learning, 6th Edition

**In addition:**

- Mlodinow, L., 2008,
*The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives*, Pantheon - Taleb, N.N., 2001,
*Fooled by Randomness*, Random House - Bodanis, D., 2001,
*E=MC^2*Pan Books - Sing, S., 1997,
*Fermat’s Last Theorem* - Bernstein, P., 1998,
*Against the Gods*Wiley - Wheelan, C., 2013,
*Naked Statistics*Norton

**After reading:**

- Gleick, J., 2012 [2011],
*The Information*Fourth Estate

**Intent: **Integrate policy research into course material to demonstrate the practical relevance of the concepts taught.

## 1. Mind & mathematics

- Wow!
- Theory vs. fact (exercise)
- Statistical manipulation (lecture)
- “How expensive is oil?” [see dy/dan]

**Reading**: “Think like a statistician – without the math“, Flowing data, March 4th 2010

“The myth of “i’m bad at math” The Atlantic

**Video: **Fermat’s Last Theorem

## 2. Descriptive statistics

- “Krupnik Estate Agents: Measures of location and dispersion” (lecture)
- Back of the envelope calculation (exercise)

Variance: The small schools myth, Alex Tabarrok

How to Read Histograms and Use Them in R

## 3. Probability theory

- Freemark Abbey Winery (case)
**Problem set**on probability theory, permutations & combinations due in class- Bayes theorem (brief lecture to debrief PS1)
- Probability distributions (lecture)

**Reading**: “How to understand risk in 13 clicks,” BBC News, March 11th 2009

## 4. Game theory

- (Lecture)

## 5. Inferential statistics

“Taxi for Professor Evans” available here

- Confidence intervals
- Significance tests
- Non-parametric

**Reading**: “Measure for Measure: The strange science of Francis Galton“, by Jim Holt, The New Yorker, Jan 24th 2005

## 6. Regression

“The suitcase case” available here

- Correlation
- Linear regression

Reading: “Regression Step by Step Using Microsoft Excel” (.pdf)

## 7. Time series

- (Lecture)
- Collecting and Presenting Data (see here)

Exponents: here

## 8. Workshop I

- Fermat’s Folly (case)
- Freakonomics replication (video)
- Sir Roy Meadow discussion (see Mlodinow, 2008, p118, see here)
**Games**:- Eleusis
- Tic-Tac-Toe
- 2048

## 9. Group presentations

- (Presentations)

## 10. Workshop II

**Problem set**on material thus far (based on previous years examination) due in class- Review session