I believe that Austrian business cycle theory is both highly important and severely misunderstood. I’ve provided a simple framework for comparing Austrian approaches with Monetarism and Keynesianism, surveyed increasing attention to Austrian ideas in mainstream media, and claimed that it deserves a place at the top table of policy debate. Contemporary economic commentators tend to dismiss the Austrian position, so I have clarified what Austrian business cycle theory does and does not claim as true.
In a broad and wide ranging theoretical article I’ve attempted to look at Austrian business cycle theory in light of rational expectations, in particular at the role of heterogeneity, the monetary footprint, and adverse selection in monetary expansion.
I’ve attempted to disentangle the heterogeneous nature of entrepreneurship with some interesting empirical applications. I’ve used the Sunday Times Rich List to claim that those who fell out of the top 100 as a consequence of the credit crunch were disproportionately likely to have been recent new entries. And I’ve used Property Ladder to illustrate ways in which the 1994-2007 UK housing boom is a manifestation of the Austrian theory of the business cycle. I’ve also written a book chapter that utilised the concepts of “regime uncertainty” and “Big Players” to the financial crisis in the UK.
I have applied the Austrian theory of the business cycle to assess the Irish economic “miracle”, and asked whether it’s an example of a tiger economy or bengal kitten. I’ve written about how access to finance impedes entrepreneurship, and argued that the monetary base still matters.
I have also attempted to contribute to the literature on free banking, both in terms of pointing out scholarly flaws in criticisms of fractional reserve banking, and defending the legitimacy of (voluntary) demand deposit contracts, (twice).
- Special reports:
- “What is the natural rate of interest?“, September 2016
- “The Upper Turning Point“, June 2016
- “The Paradox of Prediction“, March 2016
- “The Monetary Situation“, October 2014
- “An introduction to a new measure of the money supply: MA“, June 2011 (Note: see the updates here)
- “Projections Past and Future: Economic Imagination and the Financial Crisis 2007 – 2012“, August 2009
- Quarterly Reports:
- “Choose Your Own Financial Crisis” Quarterly Report No. 12, June 2014
- “Welcome to the great stagnation” Quarterly Report No. 11, March 2014
- Markets for Managers Focus Group, November 2013
- “The Yakiniku recovery” Quarterly Report No. 9, September 2013
- 2013 NGDPLT Summit: Copenhagen, May 2013
- “Can we measure uncertainty?” Quarterly Report No. 7, March 2013
- “The Unintended Consequences of Extraordinary Policy“, Quarterly Report No. 6, December 2012
- “Imagining an Optimal Language Area“, Quarterly Report No. 5, September 2012
- “Austerity and the passage of time“, Quarterly Report No. 4, June 2012
- “Malinvestment in China?“, Quarterly Report No. 3, March 2012
- “The perils of NGDP targeting“, Quarterly Report No. 2, December 2011
- “The varieties of economic experience“, Quarterly Report No. 1, August 2011
- Longer blog posts
- New estimates of productivity norm inflation, September 2016
- The stylised facts of the crack-up boom, September 2016
- Thoughts on the savings glut hypothesis, September 2016
- The lethargic recovery, September 2016
- The policymakers view of the great recession – a dynamic AD-AS analysis May 2016
- The rise of Austrian Business Cycle theory (ABC), March 2016
- QE-a culpa, May 2015
- Roundaboutness, April 2014
- Bank of England on money creation, March 2014
- Some public sector net investment scenarios…, March 2013
- The resource cost of a gold standard, September 2012